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Last year I made a series of presentations about market share across Scotland to the ten largest inbound tourist markets as identified by Visit Scotland. Now that 2024 has concluded and we have a years worth of data I thought it would be a good idea to revisit each of these markets in a bit more detail.
A disclaimer is needed here, I have done this from an airport neutral point of view, and it is very important to remember that just because a load factor is high, that does not necessarily mean that yields are high.
This particular post is focusing specifically on the Scotland-Canada market, which is the eight largest inbound tourism market for Scotland.
For those unfamiliar with the route networks and airlines below is a summary of the routes and airlines that operated flights in 2024;
- Edinburgh to Calgary with WestJet
- Edinburgh to Halifax with WestJet
- Edinburgh to Toronto with Air Canada and WestJet
- Glasgow to Toronto with Air Transat
To try and simplify this articles format I will do a general section which will provide a holistic overview of the market, then I will provide sections for each airports performance.
If you are only interested in a specific market segment use the list below to jump to the relevant section;
- Passenger Numbers By Month
- Passenger Numbers By Year
- Market Share Per Airport
- Route Specific Numbers
- Previously Served Destinations
- Speculation – What if Covid Never Happened?
Passenger Numbers By Month
As seen in the graph above, Canada possesses a rather unique trait when compared to the USA, it is year round from Glasgow and seasonal from Edinburgh.
Despite that unique trait, it likely will not surprise those who have read the previous posts on Switzerland and Italy that Edinburgh is still the market leader in terms of passenger numbers – but that was not always the case!
One important note is that despite 2024 being a leap year, Canada was not impacted by an extra days flying as February 29th was a Thursday, and the only flights that month operated on Sundays.
Passenger Numbers By Year
The Canadian market experienced significant growth from Scotland in 2024, with all growth coming from Edinburgh Airport, in stark contrast to Glasgow Airport, which despite a booming market actually witnessed a reduction in passenger numbers when compared to 2023.
For context, looking at both airports growth percentages and passenger numbers in a table shows just how stark the difference is;
| Airport | Passenger Numbers | Passenger Number Change | Growth Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh | 186,728 | +72,337 | 63.2% |
| Glasgow | 69,723 | -5,278 | -7% |
Market Share Per Airport
There is not much I can say about this that is not just repeating the above graph!
As can easily be seen Covid acted as a turning point for the Canadian market, with a significant swing from Glasgow to Edinburgh Airport, with the latter becoming the market leader in 2023 and continuing the solidify that position year-on-year.
In 2024 Edinburgh’s market share stood at 72.81%, an increase of 12.41% on 2023, whereas Glasgow held 27.19% of the Canadian market, with the gap in market share expected to grow significantly in 2025 I would not rule out Edinburgh increasing its share to the 80%+ bracket.
Route Specific Numbers
To keep this post to a reasonable length, any routes that have only seen service from one Scottish airport since 2015 will not have a graph, but rather a table outlining passenger numbers per year.
Calgary
This route commenced in 2023 from Edinburgh Airport and is exclusively operated by WestJet using their Boeing 787-9 fleet.
It should also be noted that in 2015, Air Transat hat a limited programme of flights from Glasgow Airport.
After initially operating 3 flights per week when the route launched in 2023, WestJet increased to 4 flights per week last year, accounting for the rise in passenger numbers.
Looking ahead to this summer, the recently published “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows that WestJet will remove the fourth weekly flight, returning the service to it’s 2023 levels.
- WestJet will reduce the number of movements from 178 to 124 – meaning they will reduce from 89 to 62 round trips (a 30% decrease).
- The number of seats available will also reduce from 56,960 to 39,680.
Halifax
Disclaimer: Although Glasgow Airport did have Halifax flights before the pandemic, these were actually a technical stop on the way to Toronto, therefore passenger numbers are not very high, for the best comparison between Glasgow and Edinburgh use 2022 figures, as flights from Glasgow were offered as a non-stop dedicated service!
Halifax has been a relatively fluctuant market, serving different purposes as well as moving airports since it was launched by WestJet.
| Year | Service Levels |
|---|---|
| Up to 2018 | WestJet 737-700 from GLA en-route to YYZ |
| 2019 | WestJet 737-700 from GLA |
| 2020/2021 | No Service |
| 2022 | WestJet 737 MAX from GLA |
| 2023 | No service |
| 2024 | WestJet 737 MAX from EDI |
Despite 2024 passenger numbers being below 2022 levels, the service last year operated for a shorter season, but on larger aircraft, so drawing a comparison between the two can be difficult, but overall, passenger numbers are still lower than 2022’s direct flights from Glasgow.
Looking ahead to 2025, the “Start of Season Report” for Edinburgh Airport shows the following:
- WestJet will increase from 100 to 130 movements – that’s an increase from 50 to 65 round trips (a 30% increase).
- Seats will also rise by a corresponding 30% from 17,400 to 22,620
Toronto
Similar to Halifax, talk about a story of two halves!
Glasgow was comfortably the market leader for Toronto flights thanks to Air Transat, Air Canada and WestJet all operating from the airport, with Edinburgh only seeing Air Canada.
Compare that to 2024 when Air Canada moved their service and combined it with the existing Edinburgh route, WestJet moved their flights to Edinburgh and Air Transat now have increased frequency from Glasgow, but on smaller aircraft.
Not only has Edinburgh continued to climb ahead of Glasgow in this market, it has also been helped by a reduction in passengers at Glasgow.
It should be noted however that at the time of writing, Glasgow is home to the only year round service to Canada after Air Canada abandoned their November-January flights from Edinburgh after just one season.
Looking ahead to Summer 2025 for Edinburgh Airport, significant growth is expected in this market compared to 2024;
- Air Canada will increase the number of movements they will operate from 316 to 350 – equal to increasing from 158 round trips to 175 (11% increase).
- The number of seats offered will also increase from 94,168 to 104,214 – also equating to an increase of 11%
- WestJet will increase the number of movement they will operate from 266 to 368 – meaning an increase from 133 to 184 round trips (38.4% increase).
- The number of seats offered will also increase from 46,284 to 64,032
When both airlines are combined this is the Summer 2025 overview for the Edinburgh to Toronto market;
| Year | Movements | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 718 | 168,246 |
| 2024 | 582 | 140,452 |
| Change | +136 | +27,794 |
Looking ahead to Summer 2025 for Glasgow Airport, a reduction in passengers is expected in this market based on current flights and seats;
Air Transat will decrease the number of movements they will operate from 352 to 340 – equal to decreasing from 176 round trips to 170 (3% decrease).
- The number of seats offered will also decrease from 71,644 to 67,660 – equating to a decrease of 6%
Previously Served Destinations
There are two previously served Canadian destinations that did not have service in 2024, those being Montreal and Vancouver, however, Montreal will regain direct flights in 2025 as I will outline below.
Montreal
Services to Montreal operated in 2016 from Glasgow Airport with Air Transat, flights operate for one season before being dropped by the airline.
| Year | Passenger Numbers |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 4,158 |
It has been announced that Air Canada will launch flights between Montreal and Edinburgh in 2025 using their Boeing 737 MAX fleet.
- Air Canada will operate 64 movements (32 round trips) between the two cities.
- As a result, the airline will offer 10,046 seats in summer 2025.
Vancouver
Services to Vancouver operated until 2018 from Glasgow Airport with Air Transat, the airline has since ended long haul operations from Vancouver.
| Year | Passenger Numbers |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 14,931 |
| 2016 | 13,213 |
| 2017 | 13,137 |
| 2018 | 13,126 |
As of the time of publishing no airline has announced flights to Scotland from Vancouver.
Speculation – What if Covid Never Happened?
There can be absolutely no denying that Covid-19 had a major impact on the travel industry and how airlines operate and travel habits of passengers.
I thought it would be a good idea to explore what would have happened if pre-covid trends continued year-on-year to see how long it would have taken Edinburgh Airport to have overtaken Glasgow as the largest airport for Canadian flights.
For this calculation I have worked out the average decline using a three year period, all of which is explained in the table below;
| Period | Glasgow Market Reduction |
|---|---|
| 2016 to 2017 | -1.07% |
| 2017 to 2018 | -0.17% |
| 2018 to 2019 | -2.76% |
| Average Market Reduction | -1.33% |
With that in mind and using the 2019 figures for both Glasgow and Edinburgh Airports and working forward from there I have calculated that if that average Market Reduction continued year-on-year, it would have taken Edinburgh Airport until 2055 to overtake Glasgow.
Not only that, it would have taken Glasgow Airport until 2062 to drop to its current passenger numbers in the Canadian market.
This isn’t meant to pit airports together, and its certainly not “anti” any airport, but it shows just how significant an impact the pandemic had on travel.
About The Author
George Nugent is an independent travel writer focused on honest reviews of rail, air, and coach journeys in the UK, Europe, and USA. Passionate about statistics and clear reporting, George shares insights to help travellers make informed choices.
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