OPINION: GLA Is Down, But Certainly Not Out

EDITORS NOTE: Since the publication of this post in May flights to Bucharest, Budapest and Donegal have been reinstated. Any reference to these routes being cut is now inaccurate.

If you have been reading my content for a while now you may remember that in 2021 I wrote a story titled “Glasgow Airports Plummeting Success“. It received traction quickly, with many people agreeing with the points I made in that story, some people disagreed which is fine.

Since then, aviation has emerged from the pandemic and airports have been recovering strongly since then. One of the airports not following that trend when compared to its competitors is Glasgow. In 2022 the airport handled 6,517,618 passengers (1) which is down 26.33% on 2019 (2). For transparency reasons I should remind readers that January and February of 2022 were impacted by travel restrictions across the UK.

Despite this, in 2023 the airport expects to add one million extra passengers (3) taking them to approximately seven and a half million travellers, this however is still down 16.2% on 2019.

In this post I aim to research the issue further and identify the root causes of this decline in passenger numbers. I’ll share with you markets from Glasgow that have grown and shrunk, as well as highlighting where the losses in capacity are present. I will also outline how the differences between Glasgow and Edinburgh airports are viewed by both industry insiders and the general public.

Let’s begin with the winter season of 2018/2019 and how it compares to the season of Winter 2022/2023.

Winter 2018/2019 vs Winter 2022/2023

For those who are unaware the winter season in aviation is the period of time between the last Sunday in October and the last Saturday in March.

• For Winter 2018/2019 this was the period between 28/10/18 – 30/03/19
• For Winter 2022/2023 this was the period between 30/10/22 – 25/03/23

The document below shows only the routes that have seen changes in their flights.

Information taken from destination guide for winter 2018/19 (4). The numbers used refer to the number of days per week that flights were available.

Image Notes

N/A has been used for airlines that have collapsed since the winter 18/19 season. These include Thomas Cook who ceased trading on 23rd September 2019 and Flybe who collapsed on 5th March 2020.

[1] Transfer from charter flights for Crystal Ski to operated by TUI themselves

[2] Operating afternoon flights only EK25/26 have not returned

[3] Transfer from charter flights for Crystal Ski to operated by TUI themselves

[4] Transfer from charter flights for Crystal Ski to operated by TUI themselves

More Detailed Insight

At some point between the end of the 2018/19 winter season x routes have been cut from Glasgow airport during the winter season, below is a breakdown of these destinations.

This breakdown lists, where possible, why the routes were cut and how many passengers used them during the season. If a reason is not possible this will be left blank.

Destination	Passenger Numbers	Why Route Was Cut
Barcelona	14,164
Bucharest	14,164	Not confirmed however Brexit regulations requiring passports and airline financial challenges are likely.
Budapest	15,534	WIZZ Air moved route to Edinburgh (5)
Cardiff	14,845	Flybe Collapse
Cork	9,056	Route was cut during Covid and EI Regional has since collapsed (6) and is being rebuilt.
Donegal	2,243
Dusseldorf	24,993	Eurowings moved the route to Edinburgh (7)
East Midlands	40,077	Flybe Collapse
Enfidha	4,244	Thomas Cook Collapse
Grenoble	4,434
Hurghada	5,543	Thomas Cook Collapse
Manchester	17,445	Flybe Collapse
Munich	13,102	Route Cut during Covid
Naples [5]
Orlando [6]	4,134	Virgin Atlantic moved the route to Edinburgh on a summer only operation (8)
Venice	11,779
Wroclaw	14,817

[5] Unable to find pax numbers for Naples.

[6] Operated in November and March only.

As a result of the above-mentioned cuts to flights 210,574 would be affected from lost capacity from Glasgow Airport. Although five of these routes were caused by an airline collapsing, it should be pointed out that only one (Cardiff) has service from another Scottish airport during the winter season.

Countries such as Germany have their number of destinations halved (Berlin and Frankfurt still operate) and others such as Tunisia, Hungary and Romania have lost all service from Glasgow during the winter.

Of the 210,574 impacted passengers, 44,661 (21.2% of those impacted) have had their services relocate to Edinburgh. Furthermore 139,131 of the impacted passengers (66% of those impacted) will find alternative flights from Edinburgh, these were already operating alongside Glasgow before they were dropped.

Now would be a good time to highlight the routes that were formally served by Thomas Cook to gain an understanding into how other airlines have stepped in to provide additional capacity of their own to cover the void in the market created when the airline collapsed.

The below table outlines the routes impacted, the airlines and number of flights in winter 2018/2019 and the number of flights in the winter 2022/2023 season.

As the above document shows the only route that was served by Thomas Cook and is still served today to have recovered its lost capacity is Las Palmas/Gran Canaria. With existing markets shrinking it means a market of the same size having less choice available, thus leading to higher prices for customers (it’s simple supply and demand).

The failure to attract a Ryanair base at Glasgow has meant that the airport is being squeezed from Prestwick to the Southwest and Edinburgh to the East where Ryanair offer flights to most of these destinations – all apart from Antalya are served from both airports by Ryanair.

As the above document shows despite the addition of new services and destinations by easyJet, Jet2, Ryanair and TUI the airport has still not seen any growth in its seats available. With Emirates only running at 50% capacity and easyJet removing a weekly rotation to Malaga when compared to Winter 18/19 the airport still was able to lose 734 seats.

For those who are saying that airlines only fly where there is demand I would like to raise two point with you. The first being Emirates ran with a load factor of over 90% this winter. With such high load factors on a route during its busiest period adding in an additional rotation in the evening to better connect with flights to Australia and New Zealand would be a step in the right direction for Emirates.

The second point being a quote from François Bourienne who was the Commercial Director of AGS airports when this article was released in 2017 (9). In this quote he says;

“Edinburgh tends to be successful on routes that are more inbound. Glasgow is a far bigger city, so we tend to be more successful on routes that are outbound. For instance, if you take the Gulf carriers, they find it hard in Edinburgh because it’s tough to make money from October to June when it’s winter, whereas Glasgow can fill two 777s easily all year round.”

Despite the pandemic supressing travel since restrictions have been lifted people have been returning to travel. Furthermore, Qatar Airways who serve Edinburgh have now got more flights to the middle east than Emirates, with ten flights operating last winter (10). With increasing flights from Edinburgh it offers passengers more departure options and reduces the overall journey time as passengers can reduce their transit time in the Middle East

I have outlined a lot of numbers, airlines and destinations in this article, so below is a summary of the outlined information.

Routes Cut: Bucharest, Budapest, Cardiff, Cork, Donegal, Dusseldorf, East Midlands, Enfidha, Grenoble, Hurghada, Manchester, Munich, Naples, Orlando, Venice, Wroclaw.

Seats Lost from Cut Routes: 210,574

Capacity Lost from Thomas Cook On Routes Still Served: 20,333

Gain/Loss from Other Additions/Removals: 734 seats lost

Number of Seats Lost: 231,641

Airlines Lost: Blue Air, Eurowings, Flybe (collapsed), Thomas Cook (collapsed), Virgin Atlantic & WIZZ Air

Summer 2019 vs Summer 2023

For those who are unaware the summer season in aviation is the period of time between the last Sunday in March and the last Saturday in October.

• For Summer 2019 this was the period between 31/03/19 – 26/10/19
• For Summer 2023 this is the period between 26/03/23 – 28/10/23

Image Notes

N/A has been used for airlines that have collapsed since the winter 18/19 season. These include Thomas Cook who ceased trading on 23rd September 2019 and Flybe who collapsed on 5th March 2020.

[1] Operating afternoon flights only, EK25 & EK26 have not returned

[2] No flights between 12th June and 4th September

[3] TUI transferred Orlando flights from Sanford to Orlando Melbourne

More Detailed Insight

At some point between the end of the summer 2019 season and the start of the summer 2023 season 17 routes have been cut from Glasgow airport during the summer season, below is a breakdown of these destinations.

This breakdown lists, where possible, why the routes were cut and how many passengers used them during the season. If a reason is not possible this will be left blank.

Destination	Passenger Numbers	Why Route Was Cut
Bergen
Bucharest	33,152
Budapest	25,829	WIZZ moved route to Edinburgh
Cardiff	16,903	Flybe Collapse
Cork	17,497
East Midlands	36,219	Flybe Collapse
Guernsey	1,219
Halifax	30,123
Halkidiki
Katowice	21,621
Manchester	37,277	Flybe Collapse
Marseille	5,967
Munich	39,766
New York JFK	38,104
New York Newark	48,586
Orlando International	68,652	Virgin Atlantic moved route to Edinburgh
Venice	17,126

As a result of the above cuts 438,041 would be affected from lost capacity from Glasgow Airport. Although three of these routes were caused by an airline collapsing, it should be pointed out that only one (Cardiff) has service from another Scottish airport during the summer season.

Of the 438,041 impacted passengers, 94,481 (21.6% of those impacted) have had their services relocate to Edinburgh. Furthermore 311,582 of the impacted passengers (71.1% of those impacted) will find alternative flights from Edinburgh, these were already operating alongside Glasgow before they were dropped.

Now at this point I would go on to highlight the impact of the Thomas Cook collapse, however, due to the way the summer season works that is nearly impossible. Despite the season starting at the end of March, destinations such as Burgas in Bulgaria do not start receiving flights until May. With no firm dates for routes it would not be fair to compare the two years as there is a real risk of underestimating the number of seats available in 2019, thus inflating the growth or loss figure compared to this year.

Instead I am going to do two things for summer which I did not do for winter, those being;

• A specific insight into the Transatlantic market from Glasgow.
• A comparison between 2022 and 2023 to see what markets are growing or shrinking.

Transatlantic Flights From Glasgow

In the summer of 2019 Glasgow was home to EIGHT carriers who operated flights across the Atlantic (Air Canada Rouge, Air Transat, Delta Airlines, Thomas Cook, TUI, United Airlines, Virgin Atlantic & WESTJET).

These airlines between them served seven different destinations across three countries;

• Canada: Halifax (WESTJET) and Toronto (Air Canada Rouge and Air Transat)
• USA: New York JFK (Delta), New York Newark (United Airlines) and Orlando (Thomas Cook, TUI and Virgin Atlantic)
• Mexico: Cancun (Thomas Cook and TUI)

In the Summer of 2023 Glasgow was home to TWO carriers, Air Transat and TUI who served three destinations between them in three different countries;

• Canada: Toronto (Air Transat)
• USA: Orlando (TUI)
• Mexico: Cancun (TUI)

As previously mentioned Thomas Cook collapsed in 2019 meaning they would not be able to return this year, but what about the rest of them?

• Air Canada Rouge stopped flying transatlantic and services were switched to Air Canada who decided to increase their Edinburgh service to daily (11).
• Delta stopped flying to Glasgow and instead use the larger Boeing 767 on their Edinburgh to JFK route.
• United stopped flying to Glasgow and added an additional daily flight from Edinburgh using the same flight numbers as their Glasgow to Newark route (13).
• Virgin Atlantic stopped flying to Glasgow and launched a twice weekly service between Edinburgh and Orlando – this uses a smaller aircraft than their Glasgow service and operates for a shorter season with less weekly flights!
• WestJet stopped flying international transatlantic flights from both Halifax and Toronto as part of a brand restructure. As an airline they now operate transatlantic flights from Calgary – and you would be correct, they have a new service from Edinburgh to Calgary (14).

Although it seems airlines are flying to Edinburgh only as it is the capital and has a much stronger inbound pull than Glasgow, which is true, ask any American to name a Scottish city and they will say Edinburgh (well, try to at least). It is also important to remember that people naturally are attracted to flying on an airline from their home country as they feel more comfortable with the whole experience as they know what to expect.

When that is applied to the above airlines it impacts both Delta and United Airlines – Americans want to fly with an American airline and visit Scotland, both of which can be achieved by flying to Edinburgh rather than Glasgow – remember the earlier quote from François Bourienne,

“Edinburgh tends to be successful on routes that are more inbound. Glasgow is a far bigger city, so we tend to be more successful on routes that are outbound.“

All of the just mentioned points explain why the American carries are choosing Edinburgh over Glasgow, but it doesn’t explain the full story.

In 2019 both airports were attracting similar number of passengers on their New York routes, just with different passenger demographics. With the outbound market from Glasgow left with no direct flights they face a choice of travelling to Edinburgh or flying with a stop-off from Glasgow.

With the same number of passengers but less flights from Scotland demand remains the same but supply falls. With Glasgow also having an inbound draw, especially for access to the Highlands and also having easy access to Edinburgh it could easily make this service successful again.

As for Virgin Atlantic I genuinely struggle to understand the logic behind that move. Orlando is primarily an outbound destination for theme park holidays and connections to cruise departures from Miami, if the outbound market is stronger from Glasgow, why move to Edinburgh and reduce the service you offer?

Market Growth/Fall from Summer 2022 to Summer 2023

Travel returned quickly last summer so now would be a good time to see how airlines have reacted this summer.

The below table shows each country served by Glasgow Airport and how the number of seats have either increased or decreased from last year.

Country	Growth or Decline
Austria	0 change
Belgium	496 seat increase
Canada	67,420 seat decrease
Croatia	11,430 seat decrease
Cyprus	567 seat decrease
Czech Republic	1,512 seat increase
Germany	36,393 seat increase
Greece	12,603 seat increase
Iceland	42,604 seat increase
Ireland	35,122 seat increase
Italy	17,341 seat decrease
Malta	7,560 seat increase
Mexico	15,600 seat decrease
Netherlands	11,126 seat increase
Poland	4,896 seat decrease
Portugal	48,370 seat increase
Spain	56,008 seat increase
Tunisia	NEW FOR 2023: 9,639 seats
Turkey	9,555 seat increase
United Arab Emirates	70,742 seat increase
United Kingdom	39,346 seat increase
United States of America	3,895 seat increase

As the above table shows an additional 267,717 seats have been added into Glasgow Airport compared to last summer. Some of this comes from larger aircraft, however, easyJet have added new routes to Lisbon and Porto and Jet2 have based a seventh aircraft here.

These figures show positive signs, especially to Portugal, Spain and the UAE, however markets such as Canada are suffering as a result of WESTJET leaving the airport and despite Air Transat now flying daily they are using smaller aircraft meaning less seats are available.

Growth to the Germany and the Netherlands is being supported by Lufthansa and KLM respectively who connect travellers to destinations across the globe through Frankfurt and KLM. Growth to Iceland is also being supported by a new airline, FLY Play entering the market, offering customers direct flights to Reykjavik, or the option to connect onto one of their destinations in North America.

So, What is Next?

Things are recovering, but alongside the growth for this summer both Jet2 and TUI have announced expansion between now and the end of Summer 2024.

There is also appetite internationally to rebuild lost routes to Glasgow, with the new CEO of Budapest Airport, Kam Jandu saying the following;

“Budapest Airport is also seeking to expand opportunities in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Jandu’s team has been actively working to establish routes to Lyon, Bordeaux, Toulouse, Glasgow and Newcastle.” (18)

NOTE: WIZZ will start Budapest flights on November 14th 2023

Personally, I would like to see new city break destinations from Glasgow to cities such as Milan, Athens, Sofia, Stockholm and Munich in Europe alongside re-establishing direct flights to New York and increasing Orlando flights.

NOTE: Lufthansa will start Munich flights on December 16th 2023

Furthermore, Glasgow Airport can make improvements to their website, removing lines of redundant code to shorten load times, and ensuring their destination pages and guides are both up-to-date and well publicised on social media.

When the airport is able to make their website visually appealing and useful to their customers it makes it easier for them to access information that is useful to them and means they can easily see what destinations are available to them.

I am not fully convinced by the argument that Edinburgh and Glasgow always have to compete with each other. If Glasgow was to regain flights to Budapest for example more seats are added to the market. Yes, some passengers will move from Edinburgh to Glasgow, but people in the catchment area of Glasgow Airport may also decide to fly the route, something they would not have done before.

New routes benefit both cities, more people flying from Glasgow Airport and inbound visitors to the city, good for the local economy and tourism industry. The seats freed from people moving to Glasgow flights means people in the catchment of Edinburgh Airport have more seats available to them, lowering their ticket prices.

I believe that although Glasgow Airport is down, the potential for growth is bigger here than at most international airports in the UK. With Edinburgh Airport struggling with terminal capacity in the morning and international arrivals capacity in the evenings the ball is firmly in the court of Glasgow, all they have to do is shoot, and crucially score.

Get in Touch

I would like to know your opinions on this topic and what destinations you would like to see, you can click here to access our contact page where you can either fill out our feedback form or find another way to contact us.

Below is a list of websites that have been used for information during this post.

References

(1) https://www.caa.co.uk/data-and-analysis/uk-aviation-market/airports/uk-airport-data/uk-airport-data-2022/annual-2022/

(2) https://www.caa.co.uk/Documents/Download/3951/e925ed1f-e4b5-4d12-ad1c-e95e0b5b3307/1330

(3) https://www.glasgowairport.com/media-centre/2023/over-300-employment-opportunties-arrive-with-glasgow-airport-jobs-fair/

(4) https://www.glasgowairport.com/media/2493/glasgow-aiport-flight-guide-winter-2018-2019.pdf

(5) https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2019/08/05/wizz-air-to-launch-four-routes-from-edinburgh/

(6) https://www.ft.com/content/8c6e65f9-81f8-4b90-aae7-a2841e6b3a33

(7) https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/new-glasgow-airport-dusseldorf-flight-16024229?int_source=amp_continue_reading&int_medium=amp&int_campaign=continue_reading_button#amp-readmore-target

(8) https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/08/13/virgin-atlantic-to-close-existing-glasgow-base-in-favour-of-edinburgh/

(9) https://www.key.aero/article/glasgow-airport-scottish-success

(10) https://ukaviation.news/qatar-airways-boosts-edinburgh-routes/

(11) https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/230427-acedi

(12) https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/edinburgh-airport-announces-new-york-23811388

(13) https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/230310-uaedi?rq=EDI

(14) https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/299242/westjet-confirms-transatlantic-cuts/?highlight=GLA

(15) https://www.glasgowairport.com/media-centre/2022/jet2-com-and-jet2holidays-announce-huge-summer-24-sun-programme-from-glasgow-airport/

(16) https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/scottish-news/23374840.tui-brings-back-glasgow-airport-flights-winter-sun-spots/

(17) https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/23471224.scottish-flights-holidays-tui-expands-glasgow-airport/

(18) https://www.routesonline.com/events/241/routes-europe-2023/